A selection of Tools to support good thinking are set out in the appendix of the book. Perhaps the mose useful of these are:
Standards of Evidence
The Standards of Evidence, from less certain to more certain, are a useful tool to discuss and to understand the reliability of facts supporting the decision-making process.
This is a variation of the legal concept of degrees of certainty. More details here.
Two by Two Matrix
The Two by Two Matrix
is a ubiquitious analysis tool. It is very useful when prioritising . There are a few tricks to making it unique to the decision you are working on. We have used Decisions Triage as an example.
Risk has two parts: There is the 'likleyhood' that an identified risk will happen, and the impact if it does occur. Impact is the more important component but we need to understand both. Once we add mitigatons actions for each identified risk, we are actively managing risk. More detail here.
